Romney's Gallup Lead Drops To Three Points

Gallup has brought Romney's lead down to three, Murphy is now up by six in Connecticut, a new poll shows cause for concern for Obama when it comes to enthusiasm, and two polls show how tight it is in Ohio. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.?

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Findings:?Romney's now only leading by three in Gallup's daily tracking poll. Pollster:?Gallup Methodology:?A seven-day rolling average of phone interviews of about 2,700 likely voters. Why it matters:?After a week of Romney leading by margins ranging from five to seven points, Gallup now has the race trending Obama's way. Depending on where things go from here, this should quell some of the liberal criticism of their likely voter model. This is the first day, since it incorporates polling between October 17 and 23, that was taken entirely after Obama's well-received debate performances. Earlier this week Nate Silver had explained that "polls that look like outliers normally prove to be so. This is certainly the case with the Gallup poll, which has performed quite poorly in the past when it has diverged from the consensus of other surveys."? Caveat:?Does this mean Gallup's not an outlier any longer??

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Findings:?Christopher Murphy, the Democrat in the Connecticut Senate race, has a six-point lead over Republican Linda McMahon.? Pollster:?Quinnipiac? Methodology:?Landline and cell phone interviews with?1,412 likely voters October 19 through 22 with a margin of error of +/-2.6 percentage points. Why it matters:?Though Connecticut is a blue state, McMahon had been threatening to overtake Murphy. While Murphy is up by 3.1 points in the Real Clear Politics average, polls like Quinnipiac could make Murphy breathe a little easier. Caveat:?That RCP average doesn't make Murphy's path to victory seem quite that smooth.

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Findings:?An ABC News/Washington Post?poll out yesterday evening, shows the troubles with enthusiasm Obama is facing. Currently 62 percent of likely voters supporting both Obama and Romney claim to be "very" enthusiastic about their candidate, but Obama's strong enthusiasm is three points below what he had in 2008 and Romney's is 24 points above what McCain had.? Pollster:?Langer Research Associates for?ABC News/Washington Post? Methodology:?Telephone poll of 1,382 likely voters October 19 through 22 with a +/-3 point margin of error. Why it matters:??Another indication of just how much has changed for Obama since 2008.? Caveat:?Though as Gary Langer at ABC notes, both are doing better than John Kerry was back in 2004.?

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Findings:?A poll from Rasmussen keeps the candidates tied in Ohio, while SurveyUSA gives Obama the upper hand by three points. Pollsters:?Rasmussen, SurveyUSA? Methodology:?For Rasmussen: Automated poll of 750 likely voters October 23 with a margin of error of +/-4 percent. For SurveyUSA: Poll of 609 likely and actual voters October 20 through 22 with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percent. Why it matters:?Everyone's eye is on Ohio. Chris Cillizza at the?Washington Post?writes that "it becomes increasingly clear that it is the single state that Mitt Romney must find a way to win if he wants a credible path to 270 electoral vote and the presidency." Obama's holding onto a small margin, or none at all.? Caveat:?The RCP average puts Obama up by 1.7 point, but in a poll earlier this week he was up by five points in the state.?

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/romneys-gallup-lead-drops-three-points-194406151.html

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